tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post7036715443452106020..comments2018-06-02T14:19:34.554-04:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Giants, Lions, Home Field Advantage, and Time TravelUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-69600256720061002552008-12-29T12:11:00.000-05:002008-12-29T12:11:00.000-05:00Or maybe the 2012 Lions are winning the SuperBowl ...Or maybe the 2012 Lions are winning the SuperBowl but had to steal a few wins from the 2008 Lions to do itAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-51698175596547874902008-12-23T21:47:00.000-05:002008-12-23T21:47:00.000-05:00By the way, I still think the Lions are so bad tha...By the way, I still think the Lions are so bad that they are reaching into the past and stealing wins from previous Detroit teams. Maybe the 2000 Lions won the Super Bowl and now we've woken up to a reality where the present team has depleted past wins to the point where they only went 9-7 and missed the playoffs.<BR/><BR/>Prove me wrong!Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-60938124585456286382008-12-23T11:53:00.000-05:002008-12-23T11:53:00.000-05:00Mark-Right. It's non-linear. You need to add the n...Mark-Right. It's non-linear. You need to add the natural exponent of the change in the odds ratio, not a linear addition of .10, or whatever the advantage is for a neutral team.<BR/><BR/>I was just using the example as a narrative of what made my mind wander.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13140875728706796262008-12-22T10:00:00.000-05:002008-12-22T10:00:00.000-05:00Hi Brian,aren't you getting into negative probabil...Hi Brian,aren't you getting into negative probability territory because you're adding/subtracting the same +.10/-.10 HFA correction regardless of the initial neutral field probabilities.<BR/><BR/>A HFA of three points for two evenly matched sides give the home side around a 59% chance of success,but a team that's a TD superior to another on neutral turf,sees it's win probability only change from 73% on neutral turf to 78% when they host and become 10 point favs.<BR/><BR/>MAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27930662556208416342008-12-20T01:35:00.000-05:002008-12-20T01:35:00.000-05:00I thought this might be interesting to some people...I thought this might be interesting to some people: negative probabilities pop up in quantum mechanics when you're trying to analyze things which can't be measured. For instance, I think a lot of people (well, for some definition of "a lot") have at least heard of the uncertainty principle which says that it's impossible to measure the exact position and velocity of a particle at the same time. There's a similar one for angular momentum, which says that if a particle has a "spin", like an electron, it's impossible to measure the exact direction of the spin axis. You can only compare it to one particular orientation and get an answer of parallel or antiparallel (up or down). If you did try to find the probability that the particle's spin axis points in an exact direction, you might get a negative probability. Physicists justify this by saying that the negative probability doesn't correspond to something you could actually measure, and as long as whenever you calculate the probability of something that is measurable (say, by adding up a bunch of unmeasurable probabilities), you get a positive answer, it's OK. So sure, it's a wacky concept, but nothing to do with time being turned backwards. (Sorry to disappoint ;-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com